U.S. Solar Will Eclipse Wind in 2013, Says Duke Energy

The U.S. will add more solar power in 2013 than wind energy for the first time as wind projects slump and cheap panels spur demand for photovoltaic systems, according to the head of Duke Energy Corp. (DUK)’s renewable-energy development unit.

The U.S. may install 3 gigawatts to 4 gigawatts of wind turbines this year, and solar projects will probably exceed that, said Gregory Wolf, president of Duke Energy Renewables. The U.S. added 13.1 gigawatts of wind power last year, beating natural gas for the first time.

U.S. wind projects have come to a near-standstill this year on uncertainty over the fate of a federal tax credit that was set to expire Dec. 31. Wolf anticipates more solar projects going into operation in 2013 than wind farms after panel prices fell more than 60 percent in the last two years.

“I would expect a lot of momentum still on solar,” Wolf said in an interview yesterday.

“We really ramped up our solar in 2010,” said Wolf. “Today most of the projects are half or less of the cost now than then.” Duke Renewables’ portfolio of renewable-energy projects exceeds 1.7 gigawatts.

The production tax credit, which provides 2.2 cents a kilowatt-hour for electricity from wind farms, was extended for a year on Jan. 1. With little information about whether it would be renewed, developers raced to complete wind farms by the end of last year and didn’t plan new ones.

The U.S. installed about 3.2 gigawatts of solar power last year and may reach 3.9 gigawatts this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Cheap panels and lower construction costs have been aided by policy support that “has been a little more consistent and long-term,” Wolf said.

‘Green Halo’

Duke invested more than its $500 million target in renewable energy last year, and more than $2.5 billion to date, Wolf said.

“We’re not in this business just because we want a green halo for Duke,” he said.

The largest U.S. utility owner by market value enters into long-term power purchase agreements for wind and solar plants that have “an attractive profile in terms of risk and returns,” Wolf said. “If we find really good projects, we’ll see if we can find a way to make them work.”

New Report Shows That Texas Wind And Solar Are Highly Competitive With Natural Gas

An interesting fact seemed to go unnoticed in all the press around the Electric Reliability Council of Texas’s (ERCOT) Long Term System Assessment, a biennial report submitted to the Texas Legislature on “the need for increased transmission and generation capacity throughout the state of Texas.” ERCOT found that if you use updated wind and solar power characteristics like cost and actual output to reflect real world conditions, rather than the previously used 2006 assumed characteristics, wind and solar are more competitive than natural gas over the next 20 years.  This might seem a bit strange since we’ve been told for years by renewable energy skeptics that wind and solar power can’t compete with low natural gas prices. Let me back up a second and explain what’s going on here, and what it means for both the energy crunch and Texas’ ongoing drought.

Every two years since 2005, ERCOT has used a series of complex energy system models to model and estimate future conditions on the Texas electric grid.  This serves a critical function for legislators, utilities and regulators and others who need to prepare for changes as our electric use continues to expand and evolve.  As with any model of this kind, the assumptions are critical: everything from the price of natural gas, to the cost to build power plants and transmission lines. Facing an acute energy crunch and given that solar and wind costs have come down a great deal since the first study in 2006, ERCOT dug a little deeper into their historical assumptions and developed a version of the model that used current, real-world cost and performance data for wind and solar power.

What they found was astounding: without these real-world data points, ERCOT found that 20,000 MW of natural gas will be built over the next 20 years, along with a little bit of demand response and nothing else.  Once they updated their assumptions to reflect a real-world scenario (which they call “BAU with Updated Wind Shapes”) ERCOT found that about 17,000 MWs of wind units, along with 10,000 MW of solar power, will be built in future years.

In addition to demonstrating the economic viability of renewable energy, these results show two drastically different futures: one in which we rely overwhelmingly on natural gas for our electricity, and one in which we have a diverse portfolio of comparable amounts of renewable energy (which does not use water) and natural gas.  All of this is crucial to keep in mind as the Legislature, the Public Utility Commission and ERCOT evaluate proposals to address resource adequacy concerns and the impacts of a continuing drought on our state’s energy supply.

Finally, one ERCOT statement in particular stands out from this analysis, in direct contradiction to renewable energy opponents who say that renewable energy is too expensive: “the added renewable generation in this sensitivity results in lower market prices in many hours [of the year].”  This means that when real-world assumptions are used for our various sources of power, wind and solar are highly competitive with natural gas. In turn, that competition from renewables results in lower power prices and lower water use for Texas.

As state leaders look for ways to encourage new capacity in the midst of a drought, it’s important to realize that renewable energy is now competitive over the long term with conventional resources.  The fact that renewable energy resources can reduce our water dependency while hedging against higher long-term prices means that however state leaders decide to address the energy crunch, renewables need to be part of the plan.

This commentary was originally posted on EDF’s Energy Exchange blog.

EnergyTrend: Solar PV market may exceed expectations in 1Q 2013

TrendForce’s EnergyTrend division released a new analysis which indicates that the global solar photovoltaic (PV) industry is likely to perform better than previously expected during the first quarter of 2013.

EnergyTrend notes the role of increasing demand in Japan due to an expectation of reduced incentives beginning in April 2013. The company also expects increased shipments from Chinese vendors in advance of potential EU tariffs, and growth in multiple markets including the United States.

“In addition to the changes experienced by the European and Japanese markets, the rise of China’s domestic solar market, along with the growth experienced by the US market following increased subsidies for the green energy industry, are all contributing to the growing demand in the PV market,” states EnergyTrend.

“The recent subsidies intended for PV development in New York and Los Angeles, the emphasis on the use of renewable energy resources by US President Barrack Obama, and the large US power plant investments are also important factors that, according to relevant vendors, are continuing to reinforce PV market momentum.”

“With the above factors taken into account, the prospects for the solar market in 2013, on the whole, remain largely optimistic.”

Polysilicon, monocrystalline wafer prices climb

The company also observed an increase in spot prices this week across the PV value chain, with polysilicon and monocrystalline silicon wafer prices growing the most.

Polysilicon spot prices increased 5.8% to USD 16.89 per kg, which it credits to the positive prospect of the market. The company notes that these prices have grown particularly strongly in China in anticipation of anti-US and anti-EU duties, to between USD 20.07 and 20.88 per kg.

Volkswagen of America plugs into solar farm

Volkswagen is making das auto a bit greener. The automaker has begun using a 33-acre solar farm adjacent to its Chattanooga manufacturing facility to power up to 12.5 percent of the plant’s needs during full production and 100% off production. VW’s embrace of solar power will reduce its operating costs over the long term.

The automaker’s U.S. subsidiary announced that the farm went live in a press release issued yesterday. VW signed a 20-year contract to buy the electricity, earning it the distinction of being the first automaker to earn a LEED Platinum certification from the U.S. Green Building Council.

“We are proud to power up the biggest solar park of any car manufacturer in North America today. The solar park is another proof point of Volkswagen’s worldwide commitment to environmental protection under its ‘Think Blue.,” said Frank Fischer, CEO and chairman of Volkswagen Group of America. “Factory’ philosophy, a broadly focused initiative for all Volkswagen plants to achieve more efficient use of energy, materials and water and produce less waste and emissions.”

The panels will produce nearly 13.1 gigawatt hours of electricity per year, which would power 1,200 local homes for an entire year, Volkswagen says. VW’s 1.9 million square foot plant produces the Passat sedan, employing over 3,000 workers. While VW is lowering its manufacturing costs, it is not alone in its quest for greater sustainability, which also affects its bottom line. U.S. energy costs have been rising annually.

Last summer, Ford pledged a 25% reduction in the energy its uses in automaking by 2016. Ford has already cut the power required to produce each vehicle in its global factories by 22 percentsince 2006.